Core Scientific

CORZ-🇺🇸 USA

Price: $11.70; as of Nov 6, 2026
Market cap: $3.8B; as of Nov 6, 2026

NAV per share

$19.36+65% vs price

sum of the parts, on 460M diluted shares

Fair value, rolled with the projections on record

1 Jan 2027$19.36+65% vs price · 0% vs NAV today

1 Jan 2028$25.44+117% vs price · +31% vs NAV today

Market

Price: $11.60latest close
Market cap: $3.77Bbasic shares
Implied cap rate: 9.19%10.9× NOI · model 7.17%
EV per contracted MW: $7.8M1119 MW signed · NOI/EV 18.4%

Scenario

Cap rate, bitcoin, and what each site has online by end-2030. Session only — the Valuations page stays on the base case.

Bear caseBase caseBull case

Base cap ratesigned leases and pipeline; tier spreads and the terminal spread held

Bitcoin pricethe 60 MW mining block is indexed to it

Projected AI capacity online at end-2030IT load — based on sites

PessimisticPrudentOptimistic

Muskogee

Pecos

Sum-of-the-parts NAV

Component	Per share	Running total	Basis
Signed leases, firm term	$29.17	$29.17	4 leases, $1.60B/yr of stabilised NOI, discounted from rent commencement at the 7.17% base cap rate.
+ Renewal options	+$5.36	$34.53	Each option period weighted by its probability of exercise, by holder: tenant, landlord or mutual. Rent held at the last firm-year level.
+ Residual after options	+$6.22	$40.75	Re-let with nothing signed at the 8.42% terminal cap rate, after 10% re-leasing cost, discounted from the end of the options.
+ Tenant quality premium	−$4.04	$36.71	Hyperscalers capitalised 100 bp below the base rate and frontier labs 50 bp below; investment-grade non-hyperscalers 25 bp above, neoclouds 200 bp above, third-party backstops halfway.
+ Uncontracted pipeline to end-2028	+$0.00	$36.71	0 MW expected online by end-2028 with no tenant, valued as the lease it would become: $2.20M/MW of annual contract value at a 2027-07 signing, 85% margin over 15 firm years plus the residual, less $12M/MW of capex and the execution haircut — $7.6M per MW net — at 50% probability, a signature weight rising as delivery nears.
+ Uncontracted pipeline, 2029-2030	+$1.94	$38.66	592 MW more with no tenant by end-2030 (block-level 2030 estimates), valued as the lease it would become at a 2029-07 signing — $2.20M/MW of annual contract value, $6.0M per MW net of capex and the execution haircut — at 25% probability, further from delivery than the 2028 tranche.
+ Bitcoin mining	+$0.51	$39.17	60 MW of fleet, net of the HPC capacity contracted on the same sites, at $3M/MW, indexed ×1.31 to BTC at $86,198 on 2026-09-22.
− Capex still owed	−$12.46	$26.70	629 MW contracted and not yet delivered, allocated to the latest-starting leases at $12M, $1.5M/MW by lease, × 100% owned, on the build schedule. Cash on hand of $1.64B covers 29% of it; financing already raised is not netted here because its proceeds sit in cash and net debt — what is still to raise is priced on the financing line.
− Execution haircut on undelivered MW	−$2.17	$24.53	20% probability that the 629 MW contracted and not yet delivered never come online. Their NOI legs and the capex they would require are both taken at 80%, so this line is the expected value lost, net of the capex saved. The uncontracted pipeline keeps its own probability and is not haircut twice.
− Financing gap on unfunded capex	−$1.82	$22.71	$6.50B of build still to pay, plus $1.78B for the uncontracted pipeline at the probability counted above, against $1.64B of cash, $100M of committed undrawn facilities: $6.53B has to be raised. Taken at 15% — the cost of raising it as equity below NAV or as project debt above the cap rate — on the build schedule.
− Net debt	−$5.78	$16.93	Gross debt less cash, at the latest balance sheet.
+ In-the-money converts as equity	+$1.00	$17.93	Convertibles priced to convert leave net debt; their 41.8M conversion shares join the divisor. Every per-share figure here divides by 460M diluted shares.
+ In-the-money warrants exercised	+$1.43	$19.36	96.4M warrant shares struck below the price are taken as exercised: $656M of strike proceeds come in, and the shares join the divisor. Every per-share figure here divides by 460M diluted shares.
NAV per share	$19.36	price $11.60	on 460M diluted shares

Every row is a named, priced assumption; the implied cap rate says at what rate the market capitalises this book.

Data and assumptions

Balance sheet and share count
Basic shares outstanding	322.2M	Basic Shares Outstanding · Nov 2, 2026
Cash and restricted cash	$1.64B	Total Cash and Restricted Cash · Sep 30, 2026
Net debt	$2.66B	Total Debt · Sep 30, 2026
Committed undrawn facilities	$100M	Financing
In-the-money convertibles	$460M · 41.8M shares
In-the-money warrants	96.4M shares · $656M of proceeds
Capacity
Signed leases	4 · 1,119 MW contracted	Deals
AI capacity online today	490 MW	Sites & Capacity
AI capacity at end-2028	1,119 MW · 100% contracted
AI capacity at end-2030	1,711 MW · 65% contracted
Mining fleet, net of leases on the same sites	60 MW
Owned capacity share	100%
Lease assumptions
Base cap rate	7.17% · 13.9× NOI	10-year Treasury 4.84% (2026-11-05) + 2.33 pts
Hyperscaler / frontier lab spread	−100 bp / −50 bp	Convention · source
IG corporate / neocloud spread	+25 bp / +200 bp (backstop: half)	Convention · source
NOI margin (modified gross / triple net)	85% / 97%	Trend in the sector's recent communications · source
Renewal probability (tenant / landlord option)	50% / 90%	Convention · source
Terminal cap rate · re-leasing cost	8.42% · 10%	10-year Treasury 4.84% (2026-11-05) + 2.33 pts + 1.25 pts terminal premium
Capex per MW	$12M	Convention
Execution haircut on undelivered MW	20%	Convention · source
Financing haircut on unfunded capex	15%	Convention · source
Pipeline (uncontracted capacity)
Signature probability (within a year / 2-3 years / beyond)	90% / 50% / 25%	Convention · source
Firm term of a future lease · signing lead	15 years · 1.5 years before delivery	Convention · source
Annual contract value per MW at signing (evolving)	2026: $2.00M / $2.20M · 2027: $2.20M · 2028: $2.20M · 2029: $2.20M · 2030: $2.20M	evolving metric
Bitcoin
EV per mining MW	$3M	Convention · source
BTC reference · latest close	$65,617 · $86,198	BTC close on the day the EV per MW was read

How the NAV is built

Signed leases — the contract's average rent, or its escalating profile when the published total contains the escalator; converted to NOI at the margin of the lease structure, or at the issuer's own NOI figure when plausible; discounted year by year from the date rent starts. Without a published date the announcement date is used, and the row says so.
Options — each extension period weighted by its probability of exercise, which depends on who holds it. A tenant option is exercised only if the market has risen; it is worth less to the landlord than a mutual option or its own.
Residual — once the options run out, re-letting with nothing signed: the last NOI net of re-leasing cost, capitalised at the terminal cap rate, deliberately above the contracted one.
Tier premium — hyperscalers below the base rate, frontier labs less far below (unrated, but signing 15-20 year take-or-pay leases their own model depends on), investment-grade non-hyperscalers slightly above (a good credit that does not need the compute for itself), neoclouds further above, third-party backstops halfway. Shown on its own line so the bonus is legible.
Pipeline — capacity expected online with no tenant, valued as the lease it would become: the annual contract value per MW read at the signing date (the evolving series, delivery less the signing lead), the base NOI margin over a typical firm term plus the residual, less the capex the landlord bears and the execution haircut of a signed lease — then a conversion probability that rises as delivery nears. Two tranches: what the sites schedule by end-2028, then what the block-level 2030 estimates and the unsited 2030 pipeline add over 2029-2030. Signed leases never use the series — they carry their own contract terms. Nothing beyond 2030 is counted.
Mining — the fleet at the group's EV per MW, JV-weighted, indexed to the latest BTC close over the calibration price. Net, site by site, of the HPC capacity already contracted there: a lease signed on a mining campus converts that power, so it cannot also be counted as a fleet (Pecos, Rockdale, Lake Mariner).
Ownership and claims — each lease is taken at the share of its economics the listed company owns (Applied Digital's HPC leases at 85%, Macquarie holding the rest); redeemable preferred and minority interests are deducted alongside net debt; convertibles priced to convert are treated as equity, their principal leaving net debt and their conversion shares joining the divisor; warrants struck below the price are taken as exercised, their strike proceeds coming in and their shares joining the divisor (Core Scientific's 96M emergence warrants at $6.81).
Firm-term NAV — the same sum with only the signed leases over their firm term: no options, no residual, no pipeline. The floor the market evidently prices to.
Deductions — capex on contracted MW not yet delivered, allocated to the latest-starting leases at the capex per MW each landlord bears (zero where the tenant funds the build), on the build schedule; and net debt. A build whose financing is complete still owes its capex: the money raised is already counted in cash and net debt, so removing the capex would count it twice.
Execution haircut — a signed lease on a site still under construction can slip or never be delivered. The undelivered share of each lease is taken at a probability of delivery: its NOI legs and its capex are scaled together, so the line is the expected value lost, net of the capex saved. The uncontracted pipeline carries its own probability and is not haircut twice.
Financing gap — the build still to pay, less cash, committed undrawn facilities and capital closed since the balance-sheet date, is what has to be raised; a share of it is deducted as the cost of raising it, equity below NAV or project debt above the cap rate. Financing already raised is not netted from the capex: its proceeds sit in cash and net debt.