CoreWeave
CRWV-🇺🇸 USA
- Price
- $46.20
- as of Nov 6, 2026
- Market cap
- $25.5B
- as of Nov 6, 2026
- Next earnings
- Tue, Nov 10
- Q3 2026
Fair value per share
$135.42+193% vs price
discounted cash flow to end-2030, exit at 3.5× EBITDA, on 552M diluted sharesFair value, rolled with the projections on record
1 Jan 2027$138.03+199% vs price · +2% vs today
1 Jan 2028$157.00+240% vs price · +16% vs today
Market
- Price
- $46.20latest close
- Market cap
- $25.5Bbasic shares
- Implied exit multiple
- 1.7×EBITDA at end-2030 · model 3.5×
- EV / backlog
- 0.73×$104.0B contracted
Scenario
Session only — the Valuations page stays on the base case.
Bear caseBase caseBull case
Exit multipleEV / EBITDA run-rate at end-2030
Revenue per new MWcontracts still to come: capacity not yet priced on a deal, delivered or refreshed from now on
Discounted cash flow
| Component | Per share | Running total | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow to end-2030 | $111.40 | $111.40 | EBITDA less cash taxes from Jul 2026, the fleet going from 1,500 MW to 4,203 MW — 3,202 MW once uncontracted capacity is weighted at 90% within a year of delivery, 50% two to three years out, 25% beyond. Each tranche earns the revenue per MW of the half-year of delivery; the fleet online at the start earns what it earns today. The fleet online at the start ramps from today's margin (59%) to the steady-state margin by end-2028; capacity delivered or refreshed after it earns the steady-state margin from its first month. Discounted at 10.42%. |
| − Capex for new capacity | −$26.39 | $85.00 | 2,703 MW delivered by end-2030 at $21.2M of GPUs per MW plus $12M of data center on the 0% owned, paid over the twelve months before each delivery, at the same probability as the capacity. The capex guidance sets the pace: the years it covers carry the guided figure, the years after what is left of the build. |
| − GPU refresh | −$14.81 | $70.20 | 1,125 MW reaching 5 years of GPU life before end-2030, re-equipped at $21.2M per MW and re-priced at the market rate of the refresh date once out of contract. |
| + Exit value at end-2030 | +$143.27 | $213.47 | $34.0B of EBITDA run-rate at end-2030 × 3.5 = $119.1B, discounted to today. The buyer pays for growth beyond 2030, and funds it, inside that multiple. |
| − Net debt | −$78.05 | $135.42 | Gross debt less cash at the balance sheet, moved by the $11.4B of free cash flow and $746M of interest between then and today. |
| Fair value per share | $135.42 | price $46.20 | on 552M diluted shares |
Every row is a named, priced assumption; the implied exit multiple says at what rating the market prices this build-out.
Year by year
| Year | Fleet at year end | Revenue | Run-rate at year end | EBITDA | Capex | Taxes | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026from Jul | 1,946 MWARR | $7.0B | $18.7BARR | $4.1B59% | $19.6Bguided | $193M | −$15.7B | −$4.3B |
| 2027 | 2,510 MWARR | $23.2B | $28.6BARR | $13.7B59% | $4.4B | $1.3B | $7.9B | $7.4B |
| 2028 | 3,074 MWpace | $32.2B | $35.7B | $19.0B59% | $3.7B | $2.2B | $13.1B | $11.1B |
| 2029 | 3,638 MWpace | $39.2B | $45.5B | $23.1B59% | $8.1B | $2.8B | $12.2B | $9.4B |
| 2030 | 4,203 MWpace | $51.1B | $57.7B | $30.1B59% | $4.7B | $3.7B | $21.8B | $15.1B |
| Exit, end-2030 | $57.7B | $34.0B | × 3.5 | $119.1B | $79.0B | |||
Data and assumptions
| Balance sheet and share count | ||
| Basic shares outstanding | 551.5M | Basic Shares Outstanding · Jul 31, 2026 |
| Cash and restricted cash | $4.20B | Total Cash and Restricted Cash · Feb 26, 2026 |
| Gross debt · net debt | $35.07B · $30.87B | Total Debt · Aug 11, 2026 |
| Blended coupon | 5.93% | Financing |
| The business today | ||
| Revenue, latest quarter · run-rate | $2.58B · $10.30B | Total Revenue · Aug 11, 2026 |
| Revenue per MW online | $6.9M | |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 59% | Adjusted EBITDA · Aug 11, 2026 |
| Depreciation run-rate | $5.57B | Depreciation and Amortization · Aug 11, 2026 |
| Contracted backlog | $104.00B | Revenue Backlog, Aug 11, 2026 |
| Capacity | ||
| AI fleet at the start | 1,500 MW | Active Power · Aug 11, 2026 |
| Active power guidance, end-2026 | 1,850 MW | Active power guidance · Aug 11, 2026 |
| ARR guidance, end-2026 | $19.00B | ARR guidance · Aug 11, 2026 |
| ARR guidance, end-2027 | $30.00B | ARR guidance · May 7, 2026 |
| After 2027 | 2028: 3,074 MW · 2029: 3,638 MW · 2030: 4,203 MW | Convention: the pace of the last guided year |
| Contracted capacity | 1,040 MW | Backlog ÷ (revenue per MW × 5-year contract term) · source |
| Owned capacity share | 0% | Sites on record, capacity-weighted |
| Probability and financing | ||
| Uncontracted, within a year of delivery | 90% | Convention · source |
| Uncontracted, two to three years out | 50% | Convention · source |
| Uncontracted, four years and more | 25% | |
| Execution haircut, signed and undelivered | 20% | |
| Cost of the capital still to raise | 15% | Convention · source |
| Committed undrawn facilities | $15.06B | Financing |
| Capital closed since the balance sheet | $15.20B | |
| Customer prepayments | none on record | Deals |
| Pricing and margin | ||
| Revenue per new MW, by delivery year | 2026: $20M · 2027: $20M · 2028: $20M · 2029: $20M · 2030: $20M | evolving metric |
| Steady-state EBITDA margin: new capacity at once, today's fleet by end-2028 | 59% | |
| Utilization of new capacity | 97.5% | Convention · source |
| Capex | ||
| GPUs per MW · life | $21.2M · 5 years | Convention · source |
| Data center per MW · life | $12M · 14 years | Convention |
| Capex guidance, EoY 2026 (sets the pace of the capex) | $35.00B–$39.00B | Capex guidance |
| Discount and exit | ||
| Discount rate | 10.42% | 10-year Treasury 4.84% (2026-11-05) + 5.58 pts |
| Exit multiple · bull case | 3.5× · 4× EBITDA | Convention |
| Tax rate | 25.6% | Convention · source |
How the DCF is built
- Start — the latest balance sheet: net debt as reported, and the fleet earning the revenue of the latest quarter, annualised. Cash flows between that date and today have happened and move net debt, with interest at the blended coupon.
- Capacity — for a site-level company, its blocks: each block's delivery month, IT MW and contracted status from the Sites tab, the admin's end-2028 and end-2030 estimates for the later ones. The active power guidance binds at the year ends it covers: above the blocks, the gap lands over the year; below them, the year's latest deliveries slip to the January after. For a fleet-level reporter, its active power guidance at the year ends it covers, ARR guidance lifting the fleet to the run-rate it implies, then the admin's fleet estimates, else the pace of the last guided year; the backlog, over an average contract term, says how much is contracted.
- Pricing — a block linked to a deal earns the deal's own rate, take-or-pay, until the term ends, then the market rate of that date. Other tranches earn the revenue per MW of the half-year they are delivered in, at the utilization rate, for the life of their GPUs; the fleet online at the start keeps what it earns today. ARR guidance lifts what the capacity online at that year end earns when the MW are known.
- Probability — uncontracted capacity still to come counts at the AI landlords' time-to-delivery weights, revenue, capex and exit alike. Signed capacity still to come carries the execution haircut, shown as its own line.
- Financing — the free cash flow and the interest draw on cash, undrawn facilities, capital closed since the balance sheet and customer prepayments; what the build needs beyond them is raised, and costs the financing haircut, discounted from when it is raised.
- Margin — the fleet online at the start earns the latest quarter's Adjusted EBITDA margin, ramping to the steady-state margin by end-2028; capacity delivered or refreshed after the start earns the steady-state margin from its first month.
- Capex — GPUs per MW for every delivery, plus data center per MW on the owned share, paid over the twelve months before it lands. The capex guidance sets the pace, not the cost: a guided fiscal year carries the guided figure on that timing, and the years after carry what is left of the build. GPUs at the end of their life are refreshed at the same cost and re-priced at the market rate of the refresh date. The fleet online at the start is taken as delivered over the two years before.
- Taxes — on EBITDA less depreciation, the existing run-rate plus the new capex on its own lives; losses carried forward.
- Exit — the EBITDA run-rate at end-2030 at the steady-state margin, times the exit multiple: the buyer pays for growth beyond 2030, and funds it, inside that multiple.
- Per share — convertibles priced to convert are equity, warrants struck below the price are exercised; the count is today's diluted count. The funding need is already in the negative cash flows, so growing the count as well would charge it twice.
- Implied exit multiple — the multiple at which this DCF equals the median price of the last twenty sessions, everything else held.