Keel reports Q3 2026 results amid Moses Lake construction start
Analysis
Mixed to negative: revenue fell 59% year over year and the net loss widened to $62.7 million, driven largely by a $55 million non-cash capped-call charge, while Adjusted EBITDA swung to negative $27.4 million from positive $19.2 million a year ago. Offsetting this, Keel started construction at Moses Lake with permits in hand and retains roughly $780 million in liquidity, giving it runway to fund its HPC pivot without near-term financing.
Key points
- Revenue of $27.6 million in Q3 2026, down from $68.0 million in Q3 2025, driven by the Q2 2026 halt of U.S. Bitcoin mining and lower average bitcoin prices.
- Gross loss of $14.6 million versus $2.3 million a year ago; gross margin fell to (53)% from (3)%.
- G&A expenses rose to $34 million from $17 million, reflecting senior hiring and higher stock-based compensation.
- Operating loss narrowed to $8 million (including $12.6 million of non-cash depreciation) from $18 million a year ago.
- Net loss of $62.7 million, or $0.10 per share, versus $11 million, or $0.02 per share, in Q3 2025, driven by a $55 million non-cash unrealized loss on capped calls tied to the 2025 convertible notes.
- Adjusted EBITDA of negative $27.4 million versus positive $19.2 million in Q3 2025.
- Sold its entire bitcoin treasury (2,261 BTC) plus 259 BTC mined in the quarter for about $192 million in proceeds, eliminating treasury exposure to bitcoin price swings.
- Liquidity of approximately $780 million in unrestricted cash as of November 4, 2026, with no near-term need for debt or equity financing.
- Began construction at Moses Lake in September 2026 after clearing all permits and Notice to Proceed; expected to be the company's first energized HPC site, in 2027.
- Advanced permitting at Sharon and Panther Creek, clearing three permits with four environmental permits remaining; revised site plans comply with Pennsylvania's new executive order with no cost or timeline impact.
- Load studies at Panther Creek (up to 500 MW) and Scrubgrass (up to 1.3 GW) could raise secured data center capacity from 478 MW to 1,928 MW, with results expected in Q1 2027.
Site updates (4)
| Site | Status | Active | In build | Theoretical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Moses LakeMoses Lake, WA Received all necessary permits and cleared Notice to Proceed; began construction in September 2026. Engineered an optional solution to support next-generation Vera Rubin (formerly GB300) architecture per customer demand. Expected to be Keel's first energized site generating HPC revenue, in 2027. | Under construction | — | — | — |
ScrubgrassVenango County, PA Expansion capacity load study in progress for up to 1.3 GW (part of a combined ~300% potential increase of secured data center capacity from 478 MW to 1,928 MW across Panther Creek and Scrubgrass); study on track for completion Q1 2027. | Disclosed | — | — | — |
SharonSharon, PA Cleared three permits at Sharon (with Panther Creek); four environmental permits remain, two in draft. Revised site plans fully compliant with Pennsylvania's new Executive Order, no meaningful cost or timeline changes. | Disclosed | — | — | — |
Panther CreekNesquehoning, PA Cleared three permits at Panther Creek (with Sharon); four environmental permits remain, two in draft. Revised site plans fully compliant with Pennsylvania's new Executive Order, no meaningful cost or timeline changes. Expansion capacity load study in progress for up to 500 MW (part of a combined ~300% potential increase of secured data center capacity from 478 MW to 1,928 MW across Panther Creek and Scrubgrass); study on track for completion Q1 2027. | Disclosed | — | — | — |