Nebius
NBIS-🇳🇱 The Netherlands
- Price
- $129.50
- as of Nov 6, 2026
- Market cap
- $35.2B
- as of Nov 6, 2026
- Next earnings
- Thu, Nov 12
- Q3 2026
Fair value per share
$263.91+104% vs price
discounted cash flow to end-2030, exit at 3.5× EBITDA, on 276M diluted sharesFair value, rolled with the projections on record
1 Jan 2027$268.21+107% vs price · +2% vs today
1 Jan 2028$308.28+138% vs price · +17% vs today
Market
- Price
- $129.50latest close
- Market cap
- $35.2Bbasic shares
- Implied exit multiple
- 2.3×EBITDA at end-2030 · model 3.5×
- EV / backlog
- 1.51×$37.5B contracted
Scenario
Session only — the Valuations page stays on the base case.
Bear caseBase caseBull case
Exit multipleEV / EBITDA run-rate at end-2030
Revenue per new MWcontracts still to come: capacity not yet priced on a deal, delivered or refreshed from now on
Discounted cash flow
| Component | Per share | Running total | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow to end-2030 | $206.14 | $206.14 | EBITDA less cash taxes from Jul 2026, the fleet going from 484 MW to 4,800 MW — 3,042 MW once uncontracted capacity is weighted at 90% within a year of delivery, 50% two to three years out, 25% beyond. Each tranche earns the revenue per MW of the half-year of delivery; the fleet online at the start earns what it earns today. The fleet online at the start ramps from today's margin (41%) to the steady-state margin by end-2028; capacity delivered or refreshed after it earns the steady-state margin from its first month. Discounted at 10.42%. |
| − Capex for new capacity | −$171.15 | $35.00 | 4,316 MW delivered by end-2030 at $21.2M of GPUs per MW plus $12M of data center on the 60% owned, paid over the twelve months before each delivery, at the same probability as the capacity. The capex guidance sets the pace: the years it covers carry the guided figure, the years after what is left of the build. |
| − GPU refresh | −$19.52 | $15.48 | 363 MW reaching 5 years of GPU life before end-2030, re-equipped at $21.2M per MW and re-priced at the market rate of the refresh date once out of contract. |
| + Exit value at end-2030 | +$285.76 | $301.24 | $33.9B of EBITDA run-rate at end-2030 × 3.5 = $118.8B, discounted to today. The buyer pays for growth beyond 2030, and funds it, inside that multiple. |
| − Cost of financing the build | −$4.91 | $296.33 | The build needs $9.7B beyond the $18.1B in hand (cash, committed undrawn facilities, capital closed since the balance sheet), at the probability each tranche is counted and with interest at the blended coupon. Taken at 15% — the cost of raising it as equity below fair value or debt above the return on the asset — discounted from when it is raised. |
| − Net debt | −$33.14 | $263.19 | Gross debt less cash at the balance sheet, moved by the $8.5B of free cash flow and $91M of interest between then and today. |
| + In-the-money converts as equity | +$0.73 | $263.91 | Convertibles priced to convert leave net debt; their 3.9M shares join the divisor. |
| Fair value per share | $263.91 | price $129.50 | on 276M diluted shares |
Every row is a named, priced assumption; the implied exit multiple says at what rating the market prices this build-out.
Year by year
| Year | Fleet at year end | Revenue | Run-rate at year end | EBITDA | Capex | Taxes | Free cash flow | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026from Jul | 800 MWguided | $2.4B | $8.3B | $1.2B51% | $14.0Bguided | $158M | −$12.9B | −$4.3B |
| 2027 | 1,800 MWguided | $16.3B | $25.8B | $9.4B57% | $21.5B | $1.3B | −$13.5B | −$12.8B |
| 2028 | 2,800 MWpace | $32.2B | $38.4B | $18.9B59% | $15.0B | $2.8B | $1.1B | $850M |
| 2029 | 3,800 MWpace | $43.2B | $49.1B | $25.5B59% | $13.3B | $3.8B | $8.4B | $6.4B |
| 2030 | 4,800 MWpace | $53.0B | $57.5B | $31.3B59% | $6.2B | $4.6B | $20.4B | $14.1B |
| Exit, end-2030 | $57.5B | $33.9B | × 3.5 | $118.8B | $78.8B | |||
Data and assumptions
| Balance sheet and share count | ||
| Basic shares outstanding | 271.9M | Basic Shares Outstanding · Aug 12, 2026 |
| Cash and restricted cash | $8.04B | Total Cash and Restricted Cash · Aug 12, 2026 |
| Gross debt · net debt | $8.55B · $504M | Total Debt · Aug 12, 2026 |
| Blended coupon | 2.96% | Financing |
| In-the-money convertibles | $200M · 3.9M shares | |
| The business today | ||
| Revenue, latest quarter · run-rate | $582M · $2.33B | Total Revenue · Aug 12, 2026 |
| Revenue per MW online | $4.8M | |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 41% | Adjusted EBITDA · Aug 12, 2026 |
| Depreciation run-rate | $396M | Depreciation and Amortization · Nov 11, 2025 |
| Contracted backlog | $37.49B | RPO (ASC 606), Jun 30, 2026 |
| Capacity | ||
| AI fleet at the start | 484 MW | Active Power · Feb 12, 2026 |
| Active power guidance, end-2026 | 800 MW | Active power guidance · Aug 12, 2026 |
| Active power guidance, end-2027 | 1,800 MW | |
| ARR guidance, end-2026 | $8.00B | ARR guidance · Feb 12, 2026 |
| After 2027 | 2028: 2,800 MW · 2029: 3,800 MW · 2030: 4,800 MW | Convention: the pace of the last guided year |
| Contracted capacity | 375 MW | Backlog ÷ (revenue per MW × 5-year contract term) · source |
| Owned capacity share | 60% | Sites on record, capacity-weighted |
| Probability and financing | ||
| Uncontracted, within a year of delivery | 90% | Convention · source |
| Uncontracted, two to three years out | 50% | Convention · source |
| Uncontracted, four years and more | 25% | |
| Execution haircut, signed and undelivered | 20% | |
| Cost of the capital still to raise | 15% | Convention · source |
| Committed undrawn facilities | $4.28B | Financing |
| Capital closed since the balance sheet | $5.75B | |
| Customer prepayments | none on record | Deals |
| Pricing and margin | ||
| Revenue per new MW, by delivery year | 2026: $20M · 2027: $20M · 2028: $20M · 2029: $20M · 2030: $20M | evolving metric |
| Steady-state EBITDA margin: new capacity at once, today's fleet by end-2028 | 59% | |
| Utilization of new capacity | 97.5% | Convention · source |
| Capex | ||
| GPUs per MW · life | $21.2M · 5 years | Convention · source |
| Data center per MW · life | $12M · 14 years | Convention |
| Capex guidance, FY 2026 (sets the pace of the capex) | $20.00B–$25.00B | Capex guidance |
| Discount and exit | ||
| Discount rate | 10.42% | 10-year Treasury 4.84% (2026-11-05) + 5.58 pts |
| Exit multiple · bull case | 3.5× · 4× EBITDA | Convention |
| Tax rate | 25.6% | Convention · source |
How the DCF is built
- Start — the latest balance sheet: net debt as reported, and the fleet earning the revenue of the latest quarter, annualised. Cash flows between that date and today have happened and move net debt, with interest at the blended coupon.
- Capacity — for a site-level company, its blocks: each block's delivery month, IT MW and contracted status from the Sites tab, the admin's end-2028 and end-2030 estimates for the later ones. The active power guidance binds at the year ends it covers: above the blocks, the gap lands over the year; below them, the year's latest deliveries slip to the January after. For a fleet-level reporter, its active power guidance at the year ends it covers, ARR guidance lifting the fleet to the run-rate it implies, then the admin's fleet estimates, else the pace of the last guided year; the backlog, over an average contract term, says how much is contracted.
- Pricing — a block linked to a deal earns the deal's own rate, take-or-pay, until the term ends, then the market rate of that date. Other tranches earn the revenue per MW of the half-year they are delivered in, at the utilization rate, for the life of their GPUs; the fleet online at the start keeps what it earns today. ARR guidance lifts what the capacity online at that year end earns when the MW are known.
- Probability — uncontracted capacity still to come counts at the AI landlords' time-to-delivery weights, revenue, capex and exit alike. Signed capacity still to come carries the execution haircut, shown as its own line.
- Financing — the free cash flow and the interest draw on cash, undrawn facilities, capital closed since the balance sheet and customer prepayments; what the build needs beyond them is raised, and costs the financing haircut, discounted from when it is raised.
- Margin — the fleet online at the start earns the latest quarter's Adjusted EBITDA margin, ramping to the steady-state margin by end-2028; capacity delivered or refreshed after the start earns the steady-state margin from its first month.
- Capex — GPUs per MW for every delivery, plus data center per MW on the owned share, paid over the twelve months before it lands. The capex guidance sets the pace, not the cost: a guided fiscal year carries the guided figure on that timing, and the years after carry what is left of the build. GPUs at the end of their life are refreshed at the same cost and re-priced at the market rate of the refresh date. The fleet online at the start is taken as delivered over the two years before.
- Taxes — on EBITDA less depreciation, the existing run-rate plus the new capex on its own lives; losses carried forward.
- Exit — the EBITDA run-rate at end-2030 at the steady-state margin, times the exit multiple: the buyer pays for growth beyond 2030, and funds it, inside that multiple.
- Per share — convertibles priced to convert are equity, warrants struck below the price are exercised; the count is today's diluted count. The funding need is already in the negative cash flows, so growing the count as well would charge it twice.
- Implied exit multiple — the multiple at which this DCF equals the median price of the last twenty sessions, everything else held.